← Board/player transfer · updated 11 Aug 2026· graded collapsed
Yan Diomande
RB Leipzig → Paris Saint-Germain
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
55%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability23 → 0|Viability55 → 5511 Aug 2026
Outcome graded: collapsed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 11 Aug 202623 → 0Outcome graded: collapsed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 06 Aug 202620 → 23Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 02 Aug 20260 → 20Grade reverted (was collapsed); rumour reopened, re-scored, and each source's prediction backed out of the ledger.
- 02 Aug 20260 → 20Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 29 Jul 202629 → 0Correction: re-graded confirmed → collapsed (deal did not happen; Diomande signed for Real Madrid).
- 23 Jul 2026100 → 29The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 17 Jul 202629 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 14 Jul 2026— → 29The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+17 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+9 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability53%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- RW, LW, ST
- Age
- 19
- Nationality
- Ivory Coast
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2030
- Market value
- €45m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Paris Saint-Germain
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Paris Saint-Germain’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 30 Jun 2026Tier 3Liverpool Echopolled
Liverpool transfer latest: Yan Diomande back-up 'also opts for PSG' as Reds get reality check
- 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Football365polled
Arsenal, Man City wait in the wings as PSG 'persuaded' to inject urgency into Yan Diomande deal