← Board/player transfer · updated 07 Oct 2026
Tiago Gabriel
Lecce → Arsenal
22%Possible
Probability
22%
Viability
60%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 22|Viability— → 6007 Oct 2026
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 07 Oct 2026— → 22The player is entering the final window of their contract
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+10 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability22%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CB
- Age
- 21
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €15m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Arsenal
- Stated needs
- ST, CF, CDM
- Budget (est.)
- €120m
- Wage headroom
- 65/100
- PSR pressure
- 35/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Arsenal’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 07 Oct 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled
Every Arteta Arsenal signing rated from Gabriel and Odegaard to Gyokeres