← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Sept 2026· graded collapsed
Ethan Nwaneri
Arsenal → Borussia Dortmund
0%Speculative
Probability
0%
Viability
52%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability16 → 0|Viability52 → 5204 Sept 2026
Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
Score movement
- 04 Sept 202616 → 0Window close: the player completed a move to a different club. Graded collapsed.
- 02 Sept 202613 → 16Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club · The player only joined this club in the current window, so a speculative link away is discounted
- 06 Aug 202628 → 13The player is being pursued by more than one club · The player only joined this club in the current window, so a speculative link away is discounted
- 30 Jul 2026— → 28The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+2 pts
Contract situationDerived×0.06
+3 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.00
+0 pts
Probability32%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CAM, RW
- Age
- 19
- Nationality
- United Kingdom
- Contract until
- —
- Market value
- —
- Preferred foot
- —
Buying club · Borussia Dortmund
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Borussia Dortmund’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 30 Jul 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled
Arsenal star Ethan Nwaneri attracting transfer interest from Dortmund but will get chance to impress Mikel Arteta first
- 01 Sept 2026Tier 4The Short Fusepolled
Ethan Nwaneri heading to Borussia Dortmund on loan