← Board/player transfer · updated 03 Aug 2026

Skelly Alvero

Werder Bremen Manchester United

40%Possible
Probability
40%
Viability
65%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability40|Viability6503 Aug 2026

  • This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 03 Aug 202640This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability40%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CDM, CM
Age
24
Nationality
France
Contract until
30 Jun 2028
Market value
€3m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Manchester United

Stated needs
CDM, ST, CB
Budget (est.)
€90m
Wage headroom
45/100
PSR pressure
65/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Manchester United’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 03 Aug 2026Tier 4Independent.co.ukpolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Man United eye shock move for Lewis-Skelly after Arsenal’s Vinicius Jr breakthrough

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource