← Board/player transfer · updated 19 Jul 2026
Omar Marmoush
Manchester City → Newcastle United
37%Possible
Probability
37%
Viability
54%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 37|Viability— → 5419 Jul 2026
Rumour created from first claim
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 19 Jul 2026— → 37Rumour created from first claim
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability37%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- ST, LW
- Age
- 27
- Nationality
- Egypt
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2029
- Market value
- €65m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Newcastle United
- Stated needs
- RW, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €80m
- Wage headroom
- 50/100
- PSR pressure
- 75/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Newcastle United’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 19 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Newcastle United transfer news LIVE: Omar Marmoush 'enquiry' and Lucas Bergvall stalemate - Chronicle Live