← Board/player transfer · updated 01 Aug 2026
Christian Nørgaard
Arsenal → Everton
43%Active interest
Probability
43%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 43|Viability— → 6201 Aug 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 01 Aug 2026— → 43An agreement is reported to be close · The player is entering the final window of their contract
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+9 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability43%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CDM, CM
- Age
- 32
- Nationality
- Denmark
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €18m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Everton
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Everton’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 01 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled
Everton 'agree deal with Arsenal to sign Norgaard, 32, in bargain transfer'