← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026
Dani Martinez
Atlético Madrid → Liverpool
25%Possible
Probability
25%
Viability
63%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability14 → 25|Viability63 → 6319 Jul 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
- ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
- ▪A financial / feasibility blocker was detected
Score movement
- 19 Jul 202614 → 25An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · A financial / feasibility blocker was detected
- 18 Jul 2026— → 14This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · A financial / feasibility blocker was detected
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+4 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Impossibility penalty−25 pts
Probability25%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CB
- Age
- 22
- Nationality
- Spain
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- —
- Preferred foot
- left
Buying club · Liverpool
- Stated needs
- CB, ST
- Budget (est.)
- €130m
- Wage headroom
- 70/100
- PSR pressure
- 25/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Liverpool’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 18 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Liverpool set to sign Samuel Martinez from Atletico Nacional for around £750k - The New York Times
- 19 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
‘Bid submitted today’: Liverpool launch another transfer offensive after Martinez medical - The Empire of The Kop
- 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Liverpool agree deal to sign Samuel Martinez - Liverpool FC
- 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Samuel Martinez has told Liverpool what to expect as new signing loves Reds hero - Liverpool.com