TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 27 Jul 2026

Carlos Vinícius

Porto → Arsenal

44%Active interest
Probability
44%
Viability
72%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability— → 44|Viability— → 7225 Jul 2026

  • ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  • ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 25 Jul 2026— → 44This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability44%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
ST
Age
31
Nationality
Brazil
Contract until
31 Dec 2026
Market value
€5m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Latest transfer news and rumors: Arsenal exploring Vinicius deal - theScore

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Latest transfer news and rumors: Arsenal exploring Vinicius deal - theScore.com

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Real Madrid told to approve Arsenal's Vinicius transfer because 'they cannot rely' on him - The Mirror

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal ready to smash record to sign Vinicius, Barcola prefers Liverpool - Paper Round - TNT Sports

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource