← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026· graded confirmed
Aladji Bamba
Monaco → Newcastle United
100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
63%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability67 → 100|Viability63 → 6324 Jul 2026
Outcome graded: confirmed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 24 Jul 202667 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 24 Jul 202660 → 67An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
- 23 Jul 2026— → 60An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability67%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CDM, CM
- Age
- 20
- Nationality
- France
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2030
- Market value
- €4m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Newcastle United
- Stated needs
- RW, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €80m
- Wage headroom
- 50/100
- PSR pressure
- 75/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Newcastle United’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 23 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Newcastle agree £34m deal for Monaco's Bamba
- 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Aladji Bamba transfer news: Newcastle complete £35.5m signing of midfielder from Monaco - Sky Sports