← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Aug 2026
João Pedro
Chelsea → Arsenal
48%Active interest
Probability
48%
Viability
73%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low
Why this score?
Probability— → 48|Viability— → 7304 Aug 2026
- ▪A formal bid has been reported
- ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 04 Aug 2026— → 48A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+6 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability48%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- ST, GK, LB, CAM, CB
- Age
- 24
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €0m
- Preferred foot
- left
Buying club · Arsenal
- Stated needs
- ST, CF, CDM
- Budget (est.)
- €120m
- Wage headroom
- 65/100
- PSR pressure
- 35/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Arsenal’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 03 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled
Arsenal target Joao Pedro transfer and tell Chelsea they'll 'pay north of £85m'