← Board/player transfer · updated 03 Aug 2026
Casemiro
Inter Miami → Los Angeles Galaxy
38%Possible
Probability
38%
Viability
63%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 38|Viability— → 6303 Aug 2026
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 03 Aug 2026— → 38The player is entering the final window of their contract
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability38%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CDM, CM
- Age
- 33
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2026
- Market value
- €8m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club
Buying club not resolved.
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
Evidence timeline
- 03 Aug 2026Tier 4Galaxy GMpolled
Casemiro said he wanted to play for us