← Board/player transfer · updated 04 Jul 2026

Jakub Kiwior

Arsenal Porto

48%Active interest
Probability
48%
Viability
57%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability48|Viability5704 Jul 2026

  • An agreement is reported to be close

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 04 Jul 202648An agreement is reported to be close

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability48%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CB
Age
26
Nationality
Poland
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€27m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Porto

Stated needs
Budget (est.)
Wage headroom
PSR pressure

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Porto’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 01 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Jakub Kiwior joins Porto on permanent deal - Arsenal.com

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource