← Board/player transfer · updated 05 Aug 2026

Diogo Costa

Porto Chelsea

53%Active interest
Probability
53%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability53|Viability6205 Aug 2026

  • This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 05 Aug 202653This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability53%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
GK
Age
26
Nationality
Portugal
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€40m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Chelsea

Stated needs
ST, GK
Budget (est.)
€100m
Wage headroom
55/100
PSR pressure
70/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Chelsea’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 05 Aug 2026Tier 2Sky Sportspolled

    Diogo Costa transfer news: Chelsea eyeing move for Porto goalkeeper - Paper Talk

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource