← Board/player transfer · updated 20 Jul 2026
Amad Diallo
Manchester United → Newcastle United
40%Possible
Probability
40%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 40|Viability— → 6219 Jul 2026
- ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 19 Jul 2026— → 40This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability40%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- RW, ST
- Age
- 23
- Nationality
- Cote d'Ivoire
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2030
- Market value
- €50m
- Preferred foot
- left
Buying club · Newcastle United
- Stated needs
- RW, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €80m
- Wage headroom
- 50/100
- PSR pressure
- 75/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Newcastle United’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 19 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Fabrizio Romano confirms Man Utd’s Amad transfer decision amid Newcastle United links - Read Newcastle
- 20 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Fabrizio Romano issues Amad Diallo update after shock Newcastle United transfer links - Sunderland Echo