TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 25 Jul 2026

Sinaly Diomandé

Olympique Lyonnais → Real Madrid

28%Possible
Probability
28%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability— → 28|Viability— → 6225 Jul 2026

  • ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
  • ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 25 Jul 2026— → 28The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−9 pts
Probability28%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CB
Age
25
Nationality
Ivory Coast
Contract until
30 Jun 2027
Market value
€6m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Real Madrid

Stated needs
—
Budget (est.)
—
Wage headroom
—
PSR pressure
—

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Real Madrid’s Possible XI →

Competing for Sinaly Diomandé

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Real Madrid chase Diomande, Lacroix's Chelsea medical - The Sun

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource