← Board/player transfer · updated 27 Jul 2026
Chancel Mbemba
Lille OSC → Arsenal
39%Possible
Probability
39%
Viability
65%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 39|Viability— → 6527 Jul 2026
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 27 Jul 2026— → 39The player is entering the final window of their contract
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability39%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CB
- Age
- 31
- Nationality
- DR Congo
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2026
- Market value
- €3m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Arsenal
- Stated needs
- ST, CF, CDM
- Budget (est.)
- €120m
- Wage headroom
- 65/100
- PSR pressure
- 35/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Arsenal’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 06 Jun 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Arsenal transfer news: Gunners approach PSG defender Emmanuel Mbemba - BBC