← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026· graded confirmed
Alejandro Garnacho
Chelsea → Aston Villa
100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
69%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability71 → 100|Viability69 → 6924 Jul 2026
Outcome graded: confirmed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 24 Jul 202671 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 23 Jul 202660 → 71An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
- 22 Jul 202650 → 60An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
- 22 Jul 2026— → 50This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability71%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- LW, ST
- Age
- 22
- Nationality
- Spain
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2032
- Market value
- €45m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Aston Villa
- Stated needs
- CM, LW
- Budget (est.)
- €60m
- Wage headroom
- 40/100
- PSR pressure
- 80/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Aston Villa’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 22 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Garnacho, Rogers and two clubs trying to balance the books
- 22 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Villa agree loan deal for Chelsea winger Garnacho
- 23 Jul 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled
Aston Villa seal loan signing of Alejandro Garnacho from Chelsea