← Board/player transfer · updated 19 Jul 2026

Phil Foden

Manchester City Milan

37%Possible
Probability
37%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability37|Viability6219 Jul 2026

  • The player is entering the final window of their contract

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 19 Jul 202637The player is entering the final window of their contract

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability37%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CAM, LW, CM
Age
25
Nationality
England
Contract until
30 Jun 2027
Market value
€150m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Milan

Stated needs
Budget (est.)
Wage headroom
PSR pressure

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Milan’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 19 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: AC Milan eye shock Phil Foden move as Tottenham hold Savinho talks - Transfermarkt

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource