← Board/player transfer · updated 28 Jul 2026

Francisco Conceição

Juventus Manchester United

52%Active interest
Probability
52%
Viability
66%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability52|Viability6628 Jul 2026

  • This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 28 Jul 202652This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+19 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability52%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
RW, ST
Age
23
Nationality
Portugal
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€30m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Manchester United

Stated needs
CDM, ST, CB
Budget (est.)
€90m
Wage headroom
45/100
PSR pressure
65/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Manchester United’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 28 Jul 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled

    Football transfer rumours: Manchester United to sign Juve’s Francisco Conceição?

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource