← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026· graded confirmed
Karim Adeyemi
Borussia Dortmund → Barcelona
100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
66%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability60 → 100|Viability66 → 6624 Jul 2026
Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 24 Jul 202660 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 23 Jul 2026— → 60An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is entering the final window of their contract
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+19 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability59%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- ST, RW
- Age
- 24
- Nationality
- Germany
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €60m
- Preferred foot
- left
Buying club · Barcelona
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Barcelona’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 23 Jul 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled
Transfer roundup: Barcelona sign Adeyemi, Monaco’s Bamba set for Newcastle