← Board/player transfer · updated 25 Jul 2026
Ollie Watkins
Aston Villa → Arsenal
Why this score?
Probability56 → 47|Viability73 → 7325 Jul 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
- ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
- 25 Jul 202656 → 47An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 24 Jul 2026— → 56An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
How the number is built
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- ST
- Age
- 29
- Nationality
- England
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €30m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Arsenal
- Stated needs
- ST, CF, CDM
- Budget (est.)
- €120m
- Wage headroom
- 65/100
- PSR pressure
- 35/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Arsenal’s Possible XI →Competing for Ollie Watkins
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Arsenal this rumour47%
- Manchester Unitedearly interest15%
Evidence timeline
- 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Man Utd and Arsenal in £40m Ollie Watkins transfer battle with 'official approach' anticipated - The Mirror
- 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Man Utd and Arsenal in £40m Ollie Watkins transfer battle with 'official approach' anticipated - Mirror