TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 25 Jul 2026· graded confirmed

Maxence Lacroix

Crystal Palace → Chelsea

61%Advanced
Probability
61%
Viability
55%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability100 → 61|Viability55 → 5525 Jul 2026

  • ▪An agreement is reported to be close
  • ▪A formal bid has been reported
  • ▪Multiple independent sources agree

Score movement

  1. 25 Jul 2026100 → 61An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree
  2. 24 Jul 202661 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 2 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
  3. 24 Jul 202651 → 61An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree
  4. 20 Jul 2026— → 51Rumour created from first claim

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability61%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CB
Age
26
Nationality
France
Contract until
30 Jun 2029
Market value
€35m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Chelsea

Stated needs
ST, GK
Budget (est.)
€100m
Wage headroom
55/100
PSR pressure
70/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Chelsea’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 20 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Chelsea step up interest in Palace's Lacroix

    interest · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer rumors, news: Chelsea near move for Palace's Lacroix - ESPN

    unknown · near completetone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 24 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Chelsea agree deal to sign Palace defender Lacroix

    agreement close · near completetone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Lacroix's Chelsea medical updates, Spurs battle rivals for Nusa, THREE Spanish sides chase Rodri - The Sun

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  5. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Lacroix's Chelsea medical, Rodri wanted by 3 Spanish sides - The Sun

    medical · near completetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source