← Board/player transfer · updated 31 Jul 2026
Man Utd star
Manchester United → Arsenal
48%Active interest
Probability
48%
Viability
61%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 48|Viability— → 6131 Jul 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 31 Jul 2026— → 48An agreement is reported to be close
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability48%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
Player not resolved to a known squad — scored on reporting signals only.
Buying club · Arsenal
- Stated needs
- ST, CF, CDM
- Budget (est.)
- €120m
- Wage headroom
- 65/100
- PSR pressure
- 35/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Arsenal’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 30 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Arsenal close in on transfer agreement after final 'goodbye' given by Man Utd star: FT Recap - footballtransfers.com