TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 25 Jul 2026

David Álvarez

Deportivo de A Coruña → Arsenal

39%Possible
Probability
39%
Viability
60%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability— → 39|Viability— → 6025 Jul 2026

Rumour created from first claim

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 25 Jul 2026— → 39Rumour created from first claim

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability39%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
LW, CM
Age
31
Nationality
Spain
Contract until
—
Market value
—
Preferred foot
—

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal eye Alvarez swap; Diomande bid; Chelsea medical - London Evening Standard

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Alvarez to Arsenal, Guimaraes twist; Diomande bid; Man Utd latest - London Evening Standard

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Alvarez to Arsenal, Guimaraes twist; Diomande bid; Chelsea deal; Man Utd, Liverpool latest - London Evening Standard

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal told Atletico Madrid transfer 'decision' for Alvarez swap deal - London Evening Standard

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource