← Board/player transfer · updated 05 Aug 2026
Folarin Balogun
Monaco → Tottenham Hotspur
39%Possible
Probability
39%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 39|Viability— → 6205 Aug 2026
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 05 Aug 2026— → 39The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+19 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−5 pts
Probability39%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- ST
- Age
- 25
- Nationality
- United States
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €22m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Tottenham Hotspur
- Stated needs
- CM, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €110m
- Wage headroom
- 60/100
- PSR pressure
- 30/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Tottenham Hotspur’s Possible XI →Competing for Folarin Balogun
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Tottenham Hotspur this rumour39%
- Sunderlandspeculative30%
Evidence timeline
- 05 Aug 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled
Football transfer rumours: Folarin Balogun to Spurs? Pedro Neto to Manchester City?