← Board/player transfer · updated 14 Jul 2026

Archie Gray

Tottenham Hotspur Newcastle United

28%Possible
Probability
28%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability28|Viability6214 Jul 2026

  • A source has denied / contradicted this
  • A formal bid has been reported
  • This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 14 Jul 202628A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+0 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Contradiction penalty10 pts
Probability28%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CDM, CM, CB, RB
Age
20
Nationality
United Kingdom
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€6m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Newcastle United

Stated needs
RW, CB
Budget (est.)
€80m
Wage headroom
50/100
PSR pressure
75/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Newcastle United’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 01 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Tottenham reject Newcastle bid for Gray as Spurs close in on two record-breaking deals - Football365

    bid submitted · contradictedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource