← Board/player transfer · updated 26 Jul 2026

Granit Xhaka

Sunderland Chelsea

24%Possible
Probability
24%
Viability
66%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability24|Viability6626 Jul 2026

  • A source has denied / contradicted this
  • A formal bid has been reported
  • The player's preference is reported to favour the move

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 26 Jul 202624A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · The player's preference is reported to favour the move

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+19 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+0 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Contradiction penalty22 pts
Probability24%

Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CDM, CM
Age
33
Nationality
Switzerland
Contract until
30 Jun 2028
Market value
€10m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Chelsea

Stated needs
ST, GK
Budget (est.)
€100m
Wage headroom
55/100
PSR pressure
70/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Chelsea’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 26 Jul 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled

    Régis Le Bris says Chelsea’s pursuit of Sunderland captain Xhaka is ‘closed’

    denial · contradictedtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource