← Board/player transfer · updated 17 Jul 2026

Amadou Onana

Aston Villa Manchester United

51%Active interest
Probability
51%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability51|Viability6217 Jul 2026

  • This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 17 Jul 202651This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability51%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CDM, CM
Age
24
Nationality
Belgium
Contract until
30 Jun 2029
Market value
€42m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Manchester United

Stated needs
CDM, ST, CB
Budget (est.)
€90m
Wage headroom
45/100
PSR pressure
65/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Manchester United’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 03 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Man Utd's Onana rejoins Trabzonspor on loan

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source