← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026· graded confirmed
Casemiro
Manchester United → Inter Miami
100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability59 → 100|Viability62 → 6224 Jul 2026
Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 24 Jul 202659 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 22 Jul 2026— → 59An agreement is reported to be close · The player is entering the final window of their contract
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability59%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CDM, CM
- Age
- 33
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2026
- Market value
- €8m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Inter Miami
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Inter Miami’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 22 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Ex-Man Utd midfielder Casemiro joins Inter Miami
- 22 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Inter Miami under investigation after signing Casemiro