TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 26 Jul 2026

Bradley Barcola

Paris Saint-Germain → Arsenal

25%Possible
Probability
25%
Viability
69%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability30 → 25|Viability69 → 6922 Jul 2026

  • ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  • ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

  1. 22 Jul 202630 → 25This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  2. 19 Jul 202635 → 30This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 18 Jul 202632 → 35This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 14 Jul 202644 → 32This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  5. 04 Jul 2026— → 44This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−19 pts
Probability25%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
LW, ST
Age
23
Nationality
France
Contract until
30 Jun 2028
Market value
€70m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Competing for Bradley Barcola

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 30 Jun 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal make big Bradley Barcola transfer decision after Morgan Rogers message sent - Football London

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 01 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    PSG relax Bradley Barcola transfer stance after 'Arsenal scouting mission' - London Evening Standard

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer News: Could Arsenal target Bradley Barcola after not getting Morgan Rogers? - Sky Sports

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Bradley Barcola: Arsenal retain an interest in Paris Saint-Germain forward after missing out on Morgan Rogers to Chelsea - coastfm.co.uk

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  5. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Liverpool transfer news: Arsenal in race for PSG’s Bradley Barcola but one club suffers 'blow' before Premier League season - Sports Mole

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  6. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal target Barcola, Guimaraes update; Camavinga to Man Utd; Chelsea, Liverpool latest - London Evening Standard

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource