← Board/player transfer · updated 05 Aug 2026
Ibrahim Mbaye
Paris Saint-Germain → Arsenal
43%Active interest
Probability
43%
Viability
69%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 43|Viability— → 6905 Aug 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
- ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 05 Aug 2026— → 43An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−9 pts
Probability43%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- RW, ST
- Age
- 18
- Nationality
- France
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €25m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Arsenal
- Stated needs
- ST, CF, CDM
- Budget (est.)
- €120m
- Wage headroom
- 65/100
- PSR pressure
- 35/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Arsenal’s Possible XI →Competing for Ibrahim Mbaye
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Arsenal this rumour43%
- Liverpoolearly interest34%
Evidence timeline
- 05 Aug 2026Tier 4London Evening Standardpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal book Guimaraes medical, Vinicius talks, Mbaye bid