← Board/player transfer · updated 26 Jul 2026

Kevin Trapp

Paris FC Arsenal

44%Active interest
Probability
44%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability3744|Viability626226 Jul 2026

  • A formal bid has been reported

Score movement

  1. 26 Jul 20263744A formal bid has been reported
  2. 26 Jul 202637Rumour created from first claim

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+9 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability44%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
GK
Age
36
Nationality
Germany
Contract until
30 Jun 2028
Market value
€2m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Evidence timeline

  1. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Vini Jr to Arsenal latest, Man Utd's Manu Kone move, Yan Diomande deal - The Mirror

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Real Madrid tell Arsenal how much to pay for Vini Jr as Diomande move gets 'green light' - Football365

    bid submitted · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Vini Jr warned of major issue despite Arsenal deal making sense for all parties - talkSPORT

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource