← Board/player transfer · updated 17 Jul 2026· graded confirmed
Andrey Santos
Chelsea → Manchester United
100%Done / awaiting official
Probability
100%
Viability
66%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability65 → 100|Viability66 → 6617 Jul 2026
Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
Score movement
- 17 Jul 202665 → 100Outcome graded: confirmed. 1 source prediction(s) written to the reliability ledger.
- 14 Jul 2026— → 65An agreement is reported to be close · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Probability65%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CDM, CM
- Age
- 22
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2030
- Market value
- €40m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Manchester United
- Stated needs
- CDM, ST, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €90m
- Wage headroom
- 45/100
- PSR pressure
- 65/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Manchester United’s Possible XI →Evidence timeline
- 13 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Man Utd sign £48m Santos and close in on Tielemans