TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026

Eduardo Camavinga

Real Madrid → Arsenal

28%Possible
Probability
28%
Viability
59%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability— → 28|Viability— → 5924 Jul 2026

  • ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 24 Jul 2026— → 28The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−9 pts
Probability28%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CM
Age
23
Nationality
France
Contract until
30 Jun 2029
Market value
€50m
Preferred foot
left

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Competing for Eduardo Camavinga

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal confirm deal, Guimaraes update; Camavinga to Man Utd - London Evening Standard

    monitoring · speculativetone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source