← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026
Eduardo Camavinga
Real Madrid → Manchester United
45%Active interest
Probability
45%
Viability
55%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability52 → 45|Viability55 → 5524 Jul 2026
- ▪Multiple independent sources agree
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
- 24 Jul 202652 → 45Multiple independent sources agree · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 23 Jul 202637 → 52Multiple independent sources agree
- 22 Jul 2026— → 37Rumour created from first claim
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+19 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−5 pts
Probability45%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CM
- Age
- 23
- Nationality
- France
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2029
- Market value
- €50m
- Preferred foot
- left
Buying club · Manchester United
- Stated needs
- CDM, ST, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €90m
- Wage headroom
- 45/100
- PSR pressure
- 65/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Manchester United’s Possible XI →Competing for Eduardo Camavinga
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Manchester United this rumour45%
- Arsenalspeculative28%
Evidence timeline
- 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Transfer rumors, news: Man United eye move for Camavinga - ESPN
- 23 Jul 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled
Manchester United consider Camavinga and Berge as midfield overhaul continues