← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026
John Stones
Manchester City → Chelsea
25%Possible
Probability
25%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability39 → 25|Viability62 → 6224 Jul 2026
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
- 24 Jul 202639 → 25The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 21 Jul 2026— → 39The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−23 pts
Probability25%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CB
- Age
- 31
- Nationality
- England
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2026
- Market value
- €18m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Chelsea
- Stated needs
- ST, GK
- Budget (est.)
- €100m
- Wage headroom
- 55/100
- PSR pressure
- 70/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Chelsea’s Possible XI →Competing for John Stones
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Chelsea this rumour25%
- Arsenalnear complete54%
Evidence timeline
- 21 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Chelsea interested in former Man City defender Stones