TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026

John Stones

— → Arsenal

54%Active interest
Probability
54%
Viability
65%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability45 → 54|Viability65 → 6524 Jul 2026

  • ▪An agreement is reported to be close
  • ▪Multiple independent sources agree
  • ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
  • ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

  1. 24 Jul 202645 → 54An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  2. 21 Jul 202654 → 45Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 19 Jul 202639 → 54Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract
  4. 19 Jul 2026— → 39The player is entering the final window of their contract

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−9 pts
Probability54%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CB
Age
31
Nationality
England
Contract until
30 Jun 2026
Market value
€18m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Competing for John Stones

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 19 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal lining up shock free transfer for England World Cup star John Stones as William Saliba injury replacement - The Sun

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 19 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Arsenal line up Stones free transfer - Monday's gossip

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 19 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Football gossip: Stones, Lacroix, Kone, Garnacho, Rowe, Spence, Wan Bissaka - BBC

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 20 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer rumors, news: Arsenal eye shock move for Stones - ESPN

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  5. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    A John Stones transfer could seriously hurt Arsenal and Mikel Arteta - Pain in the Arsenal

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  6. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal transfer news: Gunners interested in John Stones and Ezri Konsa after William Saliba injury blow - This is the Coast

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  7. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal transfer news: Gunners interested in John Stones and Ezri Konsa after William Saliba injury blow - Sky Sports

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  8. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    John Stones to Arsenal transfer agreement reached after William Saliba injury blow - Football London

    agreement close · near completetone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource