← Board/player transfer · updated 06 Aug 2026
Sinaly Diomandé
Olympique Lyonnais → Real Sociedad
14%Speculative
Probability
14%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 14|Viability— → 6206 Aug 2026
- ▪An agreement is reported to be close
- ▪A formal bid has been reported
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 06 Aug 2026— → 14An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+9 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−29 pts
Probability14%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CB
- Age
- 25
- Nationality
- Ivory Coast
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €6m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Real Sociedad
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Real Sociedad’s Possible XI →Competing for Sinaly Diomandé
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Real Sociedad this rumour14%
- Nottingham Forestnear complete31%
- Real Madridadvanced14%
- Arsenalearly interest9%
Evidence timeline
- 06 Aug 2026Tier 4The Sunpolled
Transfer news LIVE: Liverpool eye Spence, Real 'AGREE' £120m Diomande move