TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 26 Jul 2026

Bruno Guimarães

Newcastle United → Arsenal

3%Speculative
Probability
3%
Viability
81%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
88
expert opinion · best role CM
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability12 → 3|Viability81 → 8125 Jul 2026

  • ▪A source has denied / contradicted this
  • ▪An agreement is reported to be close
  • ▪A formal bid has been reported
  • ▪Multiple independent sources agree
  • ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  • ▪The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  • ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

  1. 25 Jul 202612 → 3A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  2. 25 Jul 202621 → 12A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 23 Jul 20266 → 21A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  4. 23 Jul 202616 → 6A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  5. 23 Jul 202613 → 16A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  6. 22 Jul 202623 → 13A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  7. 22 Jul 202633 → 23A source has denied / contradicted this · An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  8. 21 Jul 202643 → 33A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  9. 21 Jul 202640 → 43A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  10. 21 Jul 202650 → 40A source has denied / contradicted this · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  11. 19 Jul 202626 → 50This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move
  12. 04 Jul 202626 → 26A newer, higher-tier report superseded an earlier claim · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  13. 04 Jul 202626 → 26A newer, higher-tier report superseded an earlier claim · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  14. 04 Jul 202626 → 26A newer, higher-tier report superseded an earlier claim · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  15. 04 Jul 2026— → 26A newer, higher-tier report superseded an earlier claim · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+12 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+8 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Contradiction penalty−50 pts
Competing destinations−19 pts
Probability3%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CM, CDM
Age
28
Nationality
Spain
Contract until
30 Jun 2028
Market value
€75m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Arsenal

Stated needs
ST, CF, CDM
Budget (est.)
€120m
Wage headroom
65/100
PSR pressure
35/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Arsenal’s Possible XI →

Competing for Bruno Guimarães

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 26 Jun 2026Tier 4Google Newspolledsuperseded

    Arsenal transfer news: Gunners poised to make offer for Newcastle's Bruno Guimaraes - BBC

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  2. 30 Jun 2026Tier 4Google Newspolledsuperseded

    Arsenal transfer state of play as Bruno Guimaraes chase takes twist after offer for £80m star - The Mirror

    bid submitted · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 01 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolledsuperseded

    Alan Shearer launches new Bruno Guimaraes statement and Arsenal transfer verdict - Football London

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  4. 01 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolledsuperseded

    Arsenal learn Bruno Guimaraes transfer ‘tipping point’ to secure dream midfielder - Football London

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  5. 10 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Guimaraes 'pushing' for Arsenal transfer as £100m clause is explained - London Evening Standard

    interest · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  6. 15 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Newcastle Set Humongous Bruno Guimaraes Price Amid Arsenal Transfer Saga - SB Nation

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — price
  7. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal handed new Guimaraes transfer boost after £46m Newcastle bid - London Evening Standard

    bid submitted · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  8. 20 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Bruno Guimaraes planning fresh push to secure Arsenal transfer as three factors drive Newcastle exit wish - TEAMtalk

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  9. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal open talks with Newcastle to sign Bruno Guimarães - The Times

    talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  10. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal open £60m transfer talks with Newcastle for wantaway Bruno Guimaraes - The Sun

    talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  11. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal make first Bruno Guimaraes transfer approach as £60m plans ripped up - The Mirror

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  12. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal open Bruno Guimaraes transfer talks with Newcastle as Brazil star pushes to join Premier League champions - Goal.com

    talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  13. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Reported new Arsenal talks to sign Bruno Guimaraes now rubbished by Newcastle United - The Mag

    denial · contradictedtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — now rubbished by Newcastle United
  14. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Newcastle's immediate response after claims Arsenal open Bruno Guimaraes transfer talks - Football London

    talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  15. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal make first Bruno Guimaraes transfer approach as £60m plans ripped up - Mirror

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  16. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal open Guimaraes talks, medical; Rogers to Chelsea - London Evening Standard

    talks · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  17. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal to step up £100m-rated Bruno Guimaraes move - The Telegraph

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  18. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal accelerate Bruno Guimaraes move - The Telegraph

    interest · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  19. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Newcastle’s asking price for Bruno Guimaraes – and the truth about Arsenal ‘talks’ - The i Paper

    talks · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  20. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    ‘Very odd’ Arsenal now ‘accelerating’ towards Guimaraes deal – but Newcastle are ‘mystified’ - Football365

    interest · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — Newcastle are 'mystified'
  21. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal set to step up Guimaraes pursuit as Newcastle expect bid - London Evening Standard

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  22. 21 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal open Guimaraes talks, Chelsea sign Rogers, Scott bid, Man Utd, Liverpool latest - London Evening Standard

    talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  23. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal latest: £70m agreement struck as Bruno Guimaraes transfer truth emerges - Football London

    agreement close · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  24. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal Takes Major Step Toward Newcastle’s Bruno Guimaraes Transfer - SB Nation

    interest · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  25. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Gunners 'open £60m Guimaraes talks', Alvarez BLOW - The Sun

    talks · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  26. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Gunners 'open £60m Guimaraes talks', Alvarez BLOW - The Sun

    talks · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  27. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Why Bruno Guimaraes is 'perfect' for Arsenal but priceless to Newcastle | Transfer Talk Podcast - Sky Sports

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — priceless to Newcastle
  28. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer Talk Podcast | Why Bruno Guimaraes is 'perfect' for Arsenal but priceless to Newcastle - Sky Sports

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — priceless to Newcastle
  29. 22 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Gunners 'open £60m Guimaraes talks', Alvarez latest - The Sun

    talks · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  30. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Newcastle United question Arsenal after Bruno Guimaraes transfer 'agreement' - Metro.co.uk

    agreement close · near completetone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  31. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal news: Bruno Guimaraes contact made as transfer bid received from 'confident' chief - The Mirror

    contact made · active talkstone: cautiousvia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  32. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal latest: Newcastle contact over Bruno Guimaraes as transfer offer knocked back - AOL.co.uk

    bid submitted · contradictedtone: cautiousvia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — transfer offer knocked back
  33. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal latest: Newcastle contact over Bruno Guimaraes as transfer offer knocked back - Football London

    bid submitted · contradictedtone: cautiousvia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — transfer offer knocked back
  34. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal have already been given Man City transfer warning as worry grows over Bruno Guimaraes - Football London

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  35. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal transfer news LIVE: Barcola TWIST, Gunners 'open £60m Guimaraes talks' - The Sun

    interest · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  36. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Sky Sports reveal what Newcastle United have told Arsenal about Bruno Guimaraes transfer - Read Newcastle

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  37. 23 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Arsenal set to make £70m bid for Newcastle's Guimaraes

    bid submitted · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  38. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal set to make £70m bid for Newcastle's Guimaraes - BBC

    bid submitted · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  39. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal set to make £70m bid for Newcastle's Guimaraes - BBC

    bid submitted · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  40. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Bruno Guimaraes transfer news: Arsenal set to bid £70m for Newcastle midfielder - BBC

    bid submitted · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  41. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Newcastle United react to Arsenal's £70m bid for Bruno Guimaraes after 'non-starter' - Chronicle Live

    bid submitted · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — 'non-starter'
  42. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal to launch £70m Bruno Guimaraes bid - but transfer for Newcastle star hangs in balance - The Mirror

    bid submitted · advancedtone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — but transfer for Newcastle star hangs in balance
  43. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Newcastle respond to new £70m Arsenal bid for Bruno Guimaraes - Metro.co.uk

    bid submitted · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  44. 23 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Newcastle respond to new £70m Arsenal bid for Bruno Guimaraes - Metro.co.uk

    bid submitted · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  45. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Newcastle drop Bruno Guimaraes transfer hint in announcement as Arsenal prepare next move - Football London

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  46. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Bruno Guimaraes to Arsenal transfer update as £34m boost explained after Newcastle 'agree' deal - Football London

    agreement close · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  47. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal transfer new: Gunners have hardline Guimaraes valuation and won't overpay for targets - BBC

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — valuation
  48. 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal make Guimaraes bid; Chelsea medical today - London Evening Standard

    bid submitted · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  49. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal news: Newcastle issue Bruno Guimaraes response with agreement close for midfielder - The Mirror

    agreement close · near completetone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  50. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal latest: Bruno Guimaraes transfer update as midfielder's stance on move clear - Football London

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  51. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal latest: Bruno Guimaraes transfer update as midfielder's stance on move clear - Football London

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  52. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal news: Newcastle name Bruno Guimaraes price as 'progress made' towards transfer - Daily Star

    unknown · advancedtone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  53. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal's Bruno Guimaraes transfer offer, Newcastle's statement and pre-season plan - The Mirror

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  54. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Bruno Guimaraes Mulling Transfer Request Amid Arsenal Links - SB Nation

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  55. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Eddie Howe breaks silence on Bruno Guimaraes to Arsenal transfer with Alexander Isak admission - Football London

    unknown · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  56. 25 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Eddie Howe unsure on Bruno Guimarães' Newcastle future amid Arsenal interest - ESPN

    interest · early interesttone: cautiousvia rule-based:v1source
  57. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Romano gives Arsenal timeline for ‘direct negotiations with Newcastle’ over Guimaraes after ‘agreement’ - Football365

    talks · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  58. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Newcastle’s Eddie Howe Leaves Door Open for Bruno Guimaraes Transfer to Arsenal - SB Nation

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  59. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Newcastle Manager Leaves Door Open for Bruno Guimaraes’ Transfer to Arsenal - SB Nation

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  60. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal set to improve Bruno Guimaraes offer in new talks with deal dependent on two things - Football London

    interest · active talkstone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — two things
  61. 26 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Arsenal dealt transfer blow as Bruno Guimaraes decision nears - Chronicle Live

    interest · speculativetone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource