TransferSignal

← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026

Johan Manzambi

SC Freiburg → Aston Villa

64%Advanced
Probability
64%
Viability
65%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium

Why this score?

Probability59 → 64|Viability65 → 6519 Jul 2026

  • ▪An agreement is reported to be close
  • ▪A formal bid has been reported
  • ▪Multiple independent sources agree
  • ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  • ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

  1. 19 Jul 202659 → 64An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  2. 19 Jul 202649 → 59An agreement is reported to be close · A formal bid has been reported · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  3. 17 Jul 202655 → 49This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is being pursued by more than one club
  4. 14 Jul 2026— → 55This fills a stated squad need of the buying club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+14 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+6 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−5 pts
Probability64%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CM, ST
Age
20
Nationality
Switzerland
Contract until
30 Jun 2030
Market value
€30m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Aston Villa

Stated needs
CM, LW
Budget (est.)
€60m
Wage headroom
40/100
PSR pressure
80/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Aston Villa’s Possible XI →

Competing for Johan Manzambi

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 13 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Villa working on deal for Switzerland's Manzambi

    interest · active talkstone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
    • — Newcastle United
  2. 17 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled

    Villa complete club record Manzambi signing

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
  3. 18 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Johan Manzambi reveals why he joined Aston Villa after rejecting Newcastle United - Shields Gazette

    official · officialtone: definitivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource