← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Real Madrid → Man Utd
29%Possible
Probability
29%
Viability
59%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability38 → 29|Viability59 → 5923 Jul 2026
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
- 23 Jul 202638 → 29The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 04 Jul 2026— → 38Rumour created from first claim
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+6 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−9 pts
Probability29%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CDM, CM
- Age
- 26
- Nationality
- France
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €100m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club
Buying club not resolved.
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
Competing for Aurélien Tchouaméni
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Man Utd this rumour29%
- Manchester Unitedearly interest51%
Evidence timeline
- 02 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Transfer news LIVE: Arsenal get double boost; Man Utd want Tchouameni - London Evening Standard