← Board/player transfer · updated 24 Jul 2026
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Real Madrid → Manchester United
51%Active interest
Probability
51%
Viability
69%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability46 → 51|Viability69 → 6924 Jul 2026
- ▪Multiple independent sources agree
- ▪This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
- ▪The player's preference is reported to favour the move
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
- 24 Jul 202646 → 51Multiple independent sources agree · This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
- 23 Jul 2026— → 46This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player's preference is reported to favour the move · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+22 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+8 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+6 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−9 pts
Probability51%
Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- CDM, CM
- Age
- 26
- Nationality
- France
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2028
- Market value
- €100m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Manchester United
- Stated needs
- CDM, ST, CB
- Budget (est.)
- €90m
- Wage headroom
- 45/100
- PSR pressure
- 65/100
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Manchester United’s Possible XI →Competing for Aurélien Tchouaméni
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Manchester United this rumour51%
- Man Utdearly interest29%
Evidence timeline
- 23 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Man Utd handed Tchouameni boost - Friday's gossip
- 24 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
Transfer rumors, news: Man United eye move for Tchouaméni - ESPN