← Board/player transfer · updated 03 Aug 2026
Jack Grealish
Manchester City → Atlético Madrid
38%Possible
Probability
38%
Viability
62%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Medium
Why this score?
Probability— → 38|Viability— → 6203 Aug 2026
- ▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
- ▪The player is being pursued by more than one club
Score movement
Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.
- 03 Aug 2026— → 38The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
How the number is built
Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+19 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+1 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+5 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+5 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations−5 pts
Probability38%
Source reliability includes the graded ledger (a reporting source has ≥ 10 graded outcomes). Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.
Player
- Position
- LW, RW, CAM, ST
- Age
- 30
- Nationality
- United Kingdom
- Contract until
- 30 Jun 2027
- Market value
- €25m
- Preferred foot
- right
Buying club · Atlético Madrid
- Stated needs
- —
- Budget (est.)
- —
- Wage headroom
- —
- PSR pressure
- —
Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.
See Atlético Madrid’s Possible XI →Competing for Jack Grealish
The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.
- Atlético Madrid this rumour38%
- Al Hilalspeculative38%
Evidence timeline
- 03 Aug 2026Tier 2The Guardianpolled
Football transfer rumours: Atlético to offer Grealish escape route? Spurs target Osimhen and Gakpo?