← Board/player transfer · updated 27 Jul 2026

John Stones

— → Inter Milan

32%Possible

Probability

32%

Viability

62%

can it happen structurally

Tactical fit

n/a

no expert vector yet

Financial difficulty

Medium

Why this score?

Probability17 → 32|Viability62 → 6227 Jul 2026

▪An agreement is reported to be close
▪Multiple independent sources agree
▪The player is entering the final window of their contract
▪The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

27 Jul 202617 → 32An agreement is reported to be close · Multiple independent sources agree · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club
27 Jul 2026— → 17An agreement is reported to be close · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28

+22 pts

Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16

+8 pts

Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14

+9 pts

Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12

+5 pts

Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10

+5 pts

Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08

+4 pts

Window timingDerived×0.06

+5 pts

Market oddsUnavailable×0.06

+0 pts

Competing destinations−26 pts

Probability32%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position: CB
Age: 31
Nationality: England
Contract until: 30 Jun 2026
Market value: €18m
Preferred foot: right

Buying club · Inter Milan

Stated needs: —
Budget (est.): —
Wage headroom: —
PSR pressure: —

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Inter Milan’s Possible XI →

Competing for John Stones

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Inter Milan this rumour32%
Arsenalnear complete41%
Chelseaearly interest22%

Evidence timeline

27 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled
John Stones transfer news: England international verbally agrees deal to join Inter Milan amid interest from Arsenal and Chelsea - Sky Sports
agreement close · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource
27 Jul 2026Tier 2BBC Sportpolled
Inter in advanced talks with England defender Stones
talks · advancedtone: assertivevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource