← Board/player transfer · updated 28 Jul 2026

John Stones

Liverpool

15%Speculative
Probability
15%
Viability
74%
can it happen structurally
Tactical fit
n/a
no expert vector yet
Financial difficulty
Low

Why this score?

Probability15|Viability7428 Jul 2026

  • This fills a stated squad need of the buying club
  • The player is entering the final window of their contract
  • The player is being pursued by more than one club

Score movement

Not enough score events to chart yet — movement appears here as evidence accrues.

  1. 28 Jul 202615This fills a stated squad need of the buying club · The player is entering the final window of their contract · The player is being pursued by more than one club

How the number is built

Source reliabilityEmpirical×0.28
+11 pts
Independent confirmationEmpirical×0.16
+3 pts
Reported deal stageEmpirical×0.14
+4 pts
Buying-club needExpert-assigned×0.12
+10 pts
Financial feasibilityExpert-assigned×0.10
+7 pts
Player opennessExpert-assigned×0.08
+4 pts
Window timingDerived×0.06
+5 pts
Market oddsUnavailable×0.06
+0 pts
Competing destinations29 pts
Probability15%

Source reliability uses reporter tier only — no source here has the ≥ 10 graded outcomes needed to trust its record yet. Market odds are unavailable in v1, so scores cap below 100.

Player

Position
CB
Age
31
Nationality
England
Contract until
30 Jun 2026
Market value
€18m
Preferred foot
right

Buying club · Liverpool

Stated needs
CB, ST
Budget (est.)
€130m
Wage headroom
70/100
PSR pressure
25/100

Squad needs and financial profile are expert-assigned, not measured.

See Liverpool’s Possible XI →

Competing for John Stones

The player is credibly linked to more than one club. These are mutually exclusive outcomes — he can sign for only one — so each probability carries a competing-destinations penalty. They are not normalised to sum to 100.

Evidence timeline

  1. 27 Jul 2026Tier 4Google Newspolled

    Liverpool: FSG weighing up Stones and Konsa with one deal 'especially attractive' to Iraola - TEAMtalk

    interest · early interesttone: speculativevia llm:llama-3.3-70b-versatilesource